TenAce Anyone

Jelena Jankovic takes over number one for the women and Rafael Nadal takes over the top spot for the men on Aug 18th. The ranking is determined by how a player has performed between today and a year ago today. If a player skips a tournament this year that they won last year then they will miss out on those points. What it means is that Jankovic has been the most consistent woman on the tour for the last 12 months. She seems to make it to the final four in most tournaments. Maria has missed some tournaments and Ivanovic was knocked out early at Wimbledon which discounted her winning the French. I think you will see this change hands quite a few time in the coming months.

For the men it has been more stable. Rafa will hold his position as long as he doesn't get knocked off early in tournaments which is hard to picture. How balanced will that crown be on his head? Will Roger make a comeback now that the pressure is off of him? Will Rafa feel the pressure of being numero uno as much as he felt the challenge of being Numero Dos? Will he keep the crown as long as Roger did, or will Novak or Murray or Roger come and get it next? What say you?

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He should hold it for a while. I don't think anyone else besides Fed can be consistant enough on all surfaces, at this point, to take number one away from Rafa. Here's why:

Rafa is in a good spot right now. He's on a good schedule... doesn't play too much.

He owns clay and didn't look challengeable on a slower grass this year. Besides Fed, of course.

And while he's improved results on hard courts... he doesn't have to win hard court titles to retain points. QF finishes are fine for him to retain points.

He's 22 and has refuted reports that his health and longevity is a concern at this point.

He didn't need to win the AO or USO to achieve the top ranking. Which means he still has room to improve.

Murray and Djoker will definitely make the rankings interesting these next couple of years. But I just don't see them taking early season titles away from Nadal anytime soon.

As for Fed, I don't think this season is a fluke. And it's not like he's had a bad year!!! But I don't see him beating Nadal on clay ever again. And Murray and Djoker among others have proven they can play with him on a fast court. He will never again steamroll his way to a title against the best players on a hard court. He's 27 and in the twilight of his career. This so called "slump" has gone on too long for me to think he could actually get back to the 75+ wins seasons of past. Unless he plays more which he won't. He's on the latter end of an amazing career.

It's obviously not impossible for Fed to come back to number 1. Just unlikely, at this point. It will always be a close race but, barring catastropic injury, Rafa will have an easier time defending points than Fed will. Just my opinion.

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Thanks for posting Vamos. Yes, Nadal should hold on to the top spot for a while. Beijing is the wildcard here since no points came from there this past year. Nadal only made it to the fourth round at the usopen last year so he doesn't have much to lose there while Federer has to win it just to protect the points he now has. This means the only way Rafa could lose his grip before next Wimbledon is to do poorly during the clay court season. -- Not a chance. Djokovic would almost have to win the US Open and Shanghai in order to spoil the party.

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Rafa should have a secure grip on number one till this time next year at least. Djokovic has runnerup at the US OPEN points to defend, so he can only gain ground by winning the US OPEN, The indoor Masters tournaments and the season ending championship. Rafa can gain as many points as Novak in these same tournaments as the QF at the US Open is his best result from this time last year through the year end championships. I think it will be very difficult for anyone to pull off the Olympic - US Open double, so look for a surprise winner to take the US open, perhaps someone with a big serve and who likes fast courts. Even at the Australian Open, Federer has semi-final points to defend and Djokovic has first place points to defend. Unless Rafa's knees or feet blow out on him, there is little chance of anyone catching him for 2 years unless he flames out in the first round of Wimbledon. He's certainly not going to lose many clay court matches so all those points seem locked up. I don't think Federer will ever regain #1, though he will be a threat to break Sampras' record as he starts to concentrate on Grand Slams instead of #1 as Sampras did at about the same age. I do think that Djokovic and Murray will keep Nadal from having a stranglehold on the #1 LIKE Sampras and Federer have done, but he will probably be #1 2/3s of the time for the next 3-4 years. I still suspect that his style of play is so physically demanding that he will not have a long injur

Vamos_JK Reputation: 94 Level: All-Star Since: May 29, 2008	Posted on: August 4, 2008 4:40 pm Score: 85 Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Numero Uno He should hold it for a while. I don't think anyone else besides Fed can be consistant enough on all surfaces, at this point, to take number one away from Rafa. Here's why: Rafa is in a good spot right now. He's on a good schedule... doesn't play too much. He owns clay and didn't look challengeable on a slower grass this year. Besides Fed, of course. And while he's improved results on hard courts... he doesn't have to win hard court titles to retain points. QF finishes are fine for him to retain points. He's 22 and has refuted reports that his health and longevity is a concern at this point. He didn't need to win the AO or USO to achieve the top ranking. Which means he still has room to improve. Murray and Djoker will definitely make the rankings interesting these next couple of years. But I just don't see them taking early season titles away from Nadal anytime soon. As for Fed, I don't think this season is a fluke. And it's not like he's had a bad year!!! But I don't see him beating Nadal on clay ever again. And Murray and Djoker among others have proven they can play with him on a fast court. He will never again steamroll his way to a title against the best players on a hard court. He's 27 and in the twilight of his career. This so called "slump" has gone on too long for me to think he could actually get back to the 75+ wins seasons of past. Unless he plays more which he won't. He's on the latter end of an amazing career. It's obviously not impossible for Fed to come back to number 1. Just unlikely, at this point. It will always be a close race but, barring catastropic injury, Rafa will have an easier time defending points than Fed will. Just my opinion. [ Reply to Comment ]
BlueCollarIT Reputation: 98 Level: Superstar Since: Dec 13, 2006	Posted on: August 5, 2008 9:52 am Score: 94 Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Numero Uno Thanks for posting Vamos. Yes, Nadal should hold on to the top spot for a while. Beijing is the wildcard here since no points came from there this past year. Nadal only made it to the fourth round at the usopen last year so he doesn't have much to lose there while Federer has to win it just to protect the points he now has. This means the only way Rafa could lose his grip before next Wimbledon is to do poorly during the clay court season. -- Not a chance. Djokovic would almost have to win the US Open and Shanghai in order to spoil the party. [ Reply to Comment ]
fansince66 Reputation: 97 Level: Superstar Since: Mar 20, 2008	Posted on: August 5, 2008 12:06 pm Score: 94 Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Numero Uno Rafa should have a secure grip on number one till this time next year at least. Djokovic has runnerup at the US OPEN points to defend, so he can only gain ground by winning the US OPEN, The indoor Masters tournaments and the season ending championship. Rafa can gain as many points as Novak in these same tournaments as the QF at the US Open is his best result from this time last year through the year end championships. I think it will be very difficult for anyone to pull off the Olympic - US Open double, so look for a surprise winner to take the US open, perhaps someone with a big serve and who likes fast courts. Even at the Australian Open, Federer has semi-final points to defend and Djokovic has first place points to defend. Unless Rafa's knees or feet blow out on him, there is little chance of anyone catching him for 2 years unless he flames out in the first round of Wimbledon. He's certainly not going to lose many clay court matches so all those points seem locked up. I don't think Federer will ever regain #1, though he will be a threat to break Sampras' record as he starts to concentrate on Grand Slams instead of #1 as Sampras did at about the same age. I do think that Djokovic and Murray will keep Nadal from having a stranglehold on the #1 LIKE Sampras and Federer have done, but he will probably be #1 2/3s of the time for the next 3-4 years. I still suspect that his style of play is so physically demanding that he will not have a long injur

BlueCollarIT

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